Review of 2022 (from 2017) Predictions

In Q4 2017 I predicted that in Q4 2022: https://paper.dropbox.com/doc/Emerging-Technology—Bvlp_2d8RtjhkkKDXw7hLCMqAg-buXyehYeq7hm4diPwQDDk

Q4 2017 (Q4 2022)

• Majority of new cars will be Electric
  • 10% Global, 18% in CA, 6% in US, 15% in UK
    • https://insideevs.com/news/610535/electric-cars-hit-10-percent-global-new-car-sales/
    • https://electrek.co/2022/10/27/electric-cars-reach-new-car-sales-california-compare-us/
    • https://heycar.co.uk/blog/electric-cars-statistics-and-projections
    • At current growth rate, won’t hit 50% until 2028-2030
• Large-scale deployment of autonomous fleets (buses, taxis, trucks)
  • Happening in CA and TX, but still in pilot programs:
    • https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/18/ikea-kodiak-robotics-test-driverless-trucks-in-texas.html
    • https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/08/walmart-is-using-fully-driverless-trucks-to-ramp-up-its-online-grocery-business.html
    • https://electrek.co/2022/06/23/einride-autonomous-electric-trucks-us/
    • https://www.therobotreport.com/waymo-via-autonomous-trucks-making-deliveries-ups/
    • https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/28/business/driverless-trucks-highways.html
  • Maybe 2024-2025?
• Personalized medicine (gene editing)
  • Very limited use:
    • https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8949099/
    • https://www.statnews.com/2022/10/31/inconsistent-clinical-practices-thwart-wider-use-of-personalized-medicine/
    • https://www.mdpi.com/journal/jpm
• Majority of knowledge workers using XR
  • Nope, still requires 2X in resolution, better software
  • Still think it’ll happen, minimum viable in 2024, so maybe 2028-2030?
• Cryptocurrency as major asset class
  • Yes
• Dapps providing major services
  • Yes (DeFi, utility NFTs used by millions)
• Voice everywhere
  • Yes (Google, Siri, Alexa)
• Smart agents
  • Nope, although w/ ChatGPT… I think this will happen in 2023
• Solar - 10% globally
  • Ouch, no, but maybe 2025?
  • 10% of global electricity from Wind + Solar: https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/global-electricity-review-2022/
    • https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/global-electricity-mid-year-insights-2022/
  • 2021 Global solar @ 3.6% https://yearbook.enerdata.net/renewables/wind-solar-share-electricity-production.html
  • 2021 3.68% https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-elec-by-source
  • Total renewable energy @ 12.6% https://www.ren21.net/gsr-2022/chapters/chapter_01/chapter_01/
  • https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/06/state-of-renewable-energy-2022/
  • https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-may-2022/renewable-electricity
• Weather worse
  • Hey, got one